History Repeats Itself..

They say anything can happen in Game 7.

They say it’s unpredictable.

One lucky bounce could be the determining factor in who takes home Lord Stanley’s Cup.

So if we’re led to believe that Game 7 is so unpredictable, why then have we seen a very similar pattern among the 15 other Stanley Cup Finals that have gone to a Game 7

Let’s take a look at the previous Game 7’s in Stanley Cup Finals History: (Home team on right side):

1942: Detroit 1, TORONTO 3
1945: TORONTO 2, Detroit 1
1950: NY Rangers 3, DETROIT 4 (OT)
1954: Montreal 1, DETROIT 2 (OT)
1955: Montreal 1, DETROIT 3
1964: Detroit 0, TORONTO 4
1965: Chicago 0, MONTREAL 4
1971: MONTREAL 3, Chicago 2
1987: Philadelphia 1, EDMONTON 3
1994: Vancouver 2, NY RANGERS 3
2001: New Jersey 1, COLORADO 3
2003: Anaheim 0, NEW JERSEY 3
2004: Calgary 1, TAMPA BAY 2
2006: Edmonton 1, CAROLINA 3
2009: PITTSBURGH 2, Detroit 1

For most people, this list probably looks like a bunch of random scores, but take a closer look and we can find ourselves three pretty consistent similarities between these games which may tell us who wins tonight’s clash between the Boston Bruins and the Vancouver Canucks.

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1. Home Team Domination

This has to be the stat that stands out the most. Home teams are 12-3 in Game 7’s of the Stanley Cup Final. Home ice advantage in hockey was just beginning to become a bit overrated, as in recent years, road teams kept winning important playoff games (see: 2010 Playoffs, Road teams 4-0 in Game 7’s)



But this year, we’ve seen home ice become very important yet again as home teams are 5-1 in Game 7.

And if you didn’t believe it is making an impact, just look at what we’ve seen in this 2011 Stanley Cup Final. A road team has yet to win a game. So a lot of things are going in favour of Vancouver here.

Now let’s take a look at the road teams and some of the players on those teams who managed to win Game 7’s away from home. The 1945 Toronto Maple Leafs, the 1971 Montreal Canadiens, and the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins.


1945 Leafs
Sweeney Schriner- HHOF (Hockey Hall of Fame)
Ted Kennedy -HHOF
Babe Pratt -HHOF
Frank McCool- Calder Trophy Winner

1971 Habs
Jean Beliveau- HHOF, Hart Trophy, Art Ross Trophy
Henri Richard-HHOF
Jacques Lemaire-HHOF
Yvan Cournoyer- HHOF
Frank Mahovlich-Calder Trophy, HHOF
Jacques Laperriere-Calder Trophy, Norris Trophy, HHOF
Guy Lapointe-HHOF
Serge Savard-HHOF
Ken Dryden-5-time Vezina Trophy Winner, Calder Trophy, HHOF

2009 Pens
Sidney Crosby-Hart Trophy, Art Ross Trophy,
Evgeni Malkin-Art Ross Trophy

My point is that those three teams had unreal talent on their teams. The Boston Bruins do not have unreal talent. They have 1 (maybe) future hall of famer in Mark Recchi.. The Bruins did not have anyone score more than 65 points this year. David Krejci, their leading scorer, is certainly not Sidney Crosby. Zdeno Chara is nowhere near Guy Lapointe. And Tim Thomas should not even be mentioned in the same breath as Ken Dryden.

The Bruins are a bunch of hard working players (the “lunch pail gang” as former coach Don Cherry called them) who get their noses dirty in the corners and throw their weight around. But as history shows, teams like these usually come up short in Game 7 of the Finals due to the lesser amount of talent.

And when they want to be, The Canucks are easily the more talented team in this series.

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2. Low scoring/close games

Roberto Luongo will not puke all over himself again tonight. At least, that’s what history says. Expect both goaltenders to be on their "A" games tonight. Only once in 15 Game 7 Finals has there been more than 5 goals total. As you see above, the common score tends to be 2-1, 3-1, 3-0.

The last Finals Game 7 was the Penguins/Wings 2009 clash, and believe it or not, I recall this game being a real snoozer. The shot totals for both teams were very low, and it appeared that everyone was scared to make that crucial mistake and become the goat. (Detroit’s Brad Stuart was the eventual goat, giving the puck away which led to Pittsburgh’s first goal)

And as history shows us, this pattern will continue tonight.

Also, look at the margins between scores. 12 of the 15 games are decided by 2 goals or less, including 7 one-goal games. Basically, expect the team to score first tonight to just go into lockdown mode and play extremely defensive hockey.

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3. An unexpected hero

Expect the game winning goal to be scored tonight by some 3rd/4th line grinder.

Or at least that’s what history tells us.

I just finished saying how the teams with more skill usually win these games. And yes, that’s still usually the case, but for whatever reason, it will usually be a lesser known individual who will be the Stanley Cup hero in Game 7.

Here are the names of some players who have scored game-winning goals in Game 7

Pete Langelle-1942
Pete Babando-1950
Tony Leswick-1954
Alex Tanguay-2001
Mike Rupp-2003
Ruslan Fedotenko-2004
Frantisek Kaberle-2006
Max Talbot-2009

Who are these guys????

The last 5 game 7’s all have pretty average guys scoring game-winners. (Yes, Alex Tanguay is very average…)

Basically, over half of the time, we see some plug who really hasn’t done a lot in the playoffs step up at the right time. And, ironically, there are a lot of plugs on both the Bruins and Canucks tonight.

Can anyone say Raffi Torres??

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If history has any effect on tonight’s game, the home team Vancouver Canucks will win a low scoring and close 2-1 game, with a game-winner from either Raffi Torres, Maxim Lapierre, or Victor Oreskovich and take home the franchise’s first Stanley Cup.