Stanley Cup Finals Spoiler Alert

First let me just say a little eulogy for my Montreal Canadiens who bowed out earlier this week.

I mentioned in my Round 1 blog that this team was 1 year away from being really good. So the Habs decided that they weren't going to wait that long and made a run not to be forgotten anytime soon. They'll be back next year and they're winning the Northeast Divison, guaranteed. But despite the unexpected run, it still hurts because of how close we were. I guess I just assumed we were going to make it to the Final. I thought this was a Calgary 2004 run, where they were seeded 7th and made it to the Final... or an Edmonton 2006 run, 8th seed to the final...or an Ottawa 2007 run, another Canadian team run to the Finals. I thought it was the Habs turn to continue that string of Canadian team success in the last decade. Not to be.

And even though people will look back on this series and remember it for Philly's forward depth and size and goaltending, I think Montreal lost it for 2 completely different reasons:

1) I jinxed the reverse jinx theory that I wrote about in the Round 3 blog, which means it will be the last time I unveil any sports related theories that I believe in.

2) 2 days before the Philly series began, I was driving down Fermor Avenue, with my Habs car flag flapping away, as it had been since the Game 7 Washington victory. Unfortunately, my "friend" decided to roll down the window and yell at the car across from us prompting the flag to go flying into a bunch of cars and almost causing the car behind us to do a 360 degree flip. The flag has not been seen since. Right when that flag came off, I knew we were in trouble.


Now we move away from my bitching and moaning and on to the 2010 Stanley Cup Final featuring the Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers. Last round, I picked what was arguably my worst pick of the playoffs..San Jose in 6. Ugh. But for every bunch of bad picks, there's always a good one in there somewhere. And in the Kevin's Bacon Bragging Moment of the Week, let me flash you back to September of 2009, when I picked the Flyers to represent the East in the Final.

When I picked that, I expected the Flyers to get there on the back of their newly acquired goaltender Ray Emery. But as we know now, it's been a goaltending carousel in Philly this year, and Michael Leighton is now the man. And yes, I'm still a little bitter, but seriously.. was Leighton that good in the Montreal series? 3 shutouts is a good number. But let's not forget about Game 4 where the Habs couldn't muster 20 shots and Leighton wasn't even one of the three stars in the game. And the first 2 shutouts in Philly, where the Habs were just firing shots from crappy angle after crappy angle, clearly having trouble adjusting to the size of the Flyers. The Habs didn't realize until Game 3 that maybe they should have someone screening the goalie so he can't see the shot. And Leighton laid an egg letting in 5 goals. I expect a lot of eggs to be laid in this series not only by Leighton but by Chicago netminder Antii Niemi. After I compared him to my Aunty Monica in net, he decided to turn into Ed Belfour and stone the Sharks. But this guy almost cost them the Nashville series, and did not have a memorable Vancouver series.

With both of these teams having solid depth at forward, and questionable goaltending, do not expect a lot of 2-1 games. Especially when the raucous crowds in both cities start heckling the goalies and they have nervous breakdowns. In fact, if you want a Pro-Line tip, the over/under will probably be at 5.5 goals for most of this series. TAKE THE OVER. At least 3-4 games in this series will go over that number. I'm convinced. Ignore the fact that I've never won a Pro-Line, just take the over.

This has to be the least intriguing Stanley Cup Finals goaltending matchup we have seen in a while...Here is some other recent ones that may take the cake:

2006: Cam Ward vs Jussi Markkanen (Ward prevents this from being terrible, but what planet has Markannen faded off to since this series?)

Actually, this is the only one that's downright terrible in the last decade although I still question sometimes how good Chris Osgood and Marc- Andre Fleury really are (see. Game 7 Montreal 2010 playoffs) when they met in the last 2 Finals.

So it's official, this is the least intriguing goaltending Finals matchup of the millenium. Young kids who are striving to be goaltenders should turn their heads away and forget that this series ever happened. Don't take tips from Niemi and Leighton.

You should take tips however from these teams defence corps, 2 of the best in the league, and the only reason these games might go under the number. FIrst of all, we have the beast of the East Chris Pronger, who has now made 3 of the last 5 finals and has been in the playoffs 14 STRAIGHT SEASONS. Unreal. We know what this guy brings to the table. An agressive almost over-the edge style of play yet rarely finds himself out of position. The only thing I don't understand about his guy is why he wets his hair so freakin much before he comes on to the ice and slicks it back.

Pronger plays almost 30 minutes every game, and surprisingly his counterparts play almost as much. Kimmo Timonen, Matt Carle, Braydon Coburn all log 20-25 minutes a game, shut the opposition down and put up good offensive numbers as well. But the other 2 D are really important in this series as well. Ryan Parent and Lukas Krajicek, who saw a grand total of just under 5 minutes in Game 5 of the Montreal series. It's no secret, these guys are plugs. So when Peter Laviolette decides to put these guys on the ice, Chicago will have to respond with their big guns. And when they have last change at home, they will be able to do that with ease.

Chicago's D is a great mix of young (Keith, Seabrook) and veteran talent (Sopel, Campbell) and are a huge reason why Antii Niemi did what he did in the SJ series. They might not be as nasty and physical as the Philly D but their ability to jump in the rush is dangerous. Hopefully Mike Green of Washington is watching this series so he can learn how to jump in to the rush and then successfully come back on D without costing his team big time.

So let's move on to the guys who will be doing most of the scoring these series. A lot of talent from the front end in this series. Question.. which top 4 players on their respective teams are scarier?

Kane, Toews, Byfuglien, Hossa for Chicago

or

Richards, Carter, Gagne, Briere for Philly

That's extremely tough to decide and great arguments could be made for both top 4's. We do know this, though. With those names, there will be goals in this series. So to repeat myself, TAKE THE OVER.

it will be interesting to watch the 3rd and 4th lines do their jobs. Chicago has yet to play an agitator like Dan Carcillo or Scott Hartnell, and it should be interesting to see how they react to the presence of these players. Meanwhile, Big Buff is likely to provide some big problems for the Flyers D as he places himself in front of the net and lets Pronger slash and cross check him until a penalty is called. Discipline is huge in this series, because the powerplays for both teams are above average.

And how about the hair and beard styles from these forwards. We've seen the chops (Toews), the classic mullet (Kane), the grease special (Hartnell), and the 'stache (Carcillo).

Before we get to the final prediction, let's take a quick look at some other interesting things.

Here's a quality that most Stanley Cup winning teams have. They usually go through a moment in the playoffs when the chance that they may be eliminated is good. You could call it the "Holy Crap, we're in trouble" moment. But in whatever way, shape, or form, they avoid disaster and come together as a team, realizing that they never want to come that close to being eliminated again, eventually leading to good things. Don't believe me? Let's take a look at some recent Cup winning teams and the playoff tribulations that they have gone through.

2009: Pittsburgh- Go down 2-0 to Ovechkin and the Capitals in the 2nd round and appear to be toast. Game 3 goes to OT, but Kris Letang scores for the Pens and they end up winning in 7.

2008: Detroit- Couldn't really find one, although they were seeded #1 and the 8 seed Predators tied the series up at 2 and took them to overtime in Game 5 before the Wings won.

2007: Anaheim- Trailing the Wings by 1 in Game 5 of the West Final, and in danger of going down 3-2 in the series, the Ducks score with under a minute left in regulation and win in OT.

2006: Carolina- In the first round, they lose the first 2 games at home, and have to go back to Montreal trailing 0-2. But a young rookie named Cam Ward comes in and the Canes win the next 4 games en route to a title.

2004: Tampa Bay- The Calgary Flames go up 3-2 in the final and go back home trying to wrap up the series. A controversial disallowed goal allows the game to go into OT where the Lightning win and go on to win Game 7.

This year, the Blackhawks had a frightening moment against Nashville when, in Game 5 and the series tied at 2, they trailed 4-3 and Marian "I'll let the other guys win a Cup for me" Hossa takes a penalty with under 2 minutes left in regulation. Somehow, they score shorthanded and send the game to OT where Hossa comes out of the box and wins it. Wow, that was close.

The Flyers had the biggest "Holy Crap, we're in trouble moment" ever when they trailed the Boston Bruins 3-0 in their second round series. They battled back to win 3 straight and then in game 7, trailed 3-0 in the second period and miraculously came back to win 4-3.


So who will win this series? Despite what some are saying, this will not be over quickly. We've mentioned the home ice advantage which both teams are fortunate of having, Philly a bit better than Chicago ( Philly 7-1, Chicago 5-3). We've mentioned the depth at forward for these teams, the offensive and defensive gems on the back end. And of course, we mentioned the less than stellar goaltending.
But the fact is this. Most young teams need to make a pilot run in the playoffs just to see what it's all about. The Blackhawks took that run last year, losing to Detroit in the West Final. They've taken that next step and just need to finish it off. We constantly see lower seeded teams reach the final, especially in the last decade. But they never end up winning. Now the Flyers are better than a 7 seed there's no question about it. But the high seed always seems to come out on top in these David vs Goliath series'. So even though I think both teams deserve a Stanley Cup ring, I can only pick one.

Chicago in 7