Saturday, May 29, 2010

Stanley Cup Finals Spoiler Alert

First let me just say a little eulogy for my Montreal Canadiens who bowed out earlier this week.

I mentioned in my Round 1 blog that this team was 1 year away from being really good. So the Habs decided that they weren't going to wait that long and made a run not to be forgotten anytime soon. They'll be back next year and they're winning the Northeast Divison, guaranteed. But despite the unexpected run, it still hurts because of how close we were. I guess I just assumed we were going to make it to the Final. I thought this was a Calgary 2004 run, where they were seeded 7th and made it to the Final... or an Edmonton 2006 run, 8th seed to the final...or an Ottawa 2007 run, another Canadian team run to the Finals. I thought it was the Habs turn to continue that string of Canadian team success in the last decade. Not to be.

And even though people will look back on this series and remember it for Philly's forward depth and size and goaltending, I think Montreal lost it for 2 completely different reasons:

1) I jinxed the reverse jinx theory that I wrote about in the Round 3 blog, which means it will be the last time I unveil any sports related theories that I believe in.

2) 2 days before the Philly series began, I was driving down Fermor Avenue, with my Habs car flag flapping away, as it had been since the Game 7 Washington victory. Unfortunately, my "friend" decided to roll down the window and yell at the car across from us prompting the flag to go flying into a bunch of cars and almost causing the car behind us to do a 360 degree flip. The flag has not been seen since. Right when that flag came off, I knew we were in trouble.


Now we move away from my bitching and moaning and on to the 2010 Stanley Cup Final featuring the Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers. Last round, I picked what was arguably my worst pick of the playoffs..San Jose in 6. Ugh. But for every bunch of bad picks, there's always a good one in there somewhere. And in the Kevin's Bacon Bragging Moment of the Week, let me flash you back to September of 2009, when I picked the Flyers to represent the East in the Final.

When I picked that, I expected the Flyers to get there on the back of their newly acquired goaltender Ray Emery. But as we know now, it's been a goaltending carousel in Philly this year, and Michael Leighton is now the man. And yes, I'm still a little bitter, but seriously.. was Leighton that good in the Montreal series? 3 shutouts is a good number. But let's not forget about Game 4 where the Habs couldn't muster 20 shots and Leighton wasn't even one of the three stars in the game. And the first 2 shutouts in Philly, where the Habs were just firing shots from crappy angle after crappy angle, clearly having trouble adjusting to the size of the Flyers. The Habs didn't realize until Game 3 that maybe they should have someone screening the goalie so he can't see the shot. And Leighton laid an egg letting in 5 goals. I expect a lot of eggs to be laid in this series not only by Leighton but by Chicago netminder Antii Niemi. After I compared him to my Aunty Monica in net, he decided to turn into Ed Belfour and stone the Sharks. But this guy almost cost them the Nashville series, and did not have a memorable Vancouver series.

With both of these teams having solid depth at forward, and questionable goaltending, do not expect a lot of 2-1 games. Especially when the raucous crowds in both cities start heckling the goalies and they have nervous breakdowns. In fact, if you want a Pro-Line tip, the over/under will probably be at 5.5 goals for most of this series. TAKE THE OVER. At least 3-4 games in this series will go over that number. I'm convinced. Ignore the fact that I've never won a Pro-Line, just take the over.

This has to be the least intriguing Stanley Cup Finals goaltending matchup we have seen in a while...Here is some other recent ones that may take the cake:

2006: Cam Ward vs Jussi Markkanen (Ward prevents this from being terrible, but what planet has Markannen faded off to since this series?)

Actually, this is the only one that's downright terrible in the last decade although I still question sometimes how good Chris Osgood and Marc- Andre Fleury really are (see. Game 7 Montreal 2010 playoffs) when they met in the last 2 Finals.

So it's official, this is the least intriguing goaltending Finals matchup of the millenium. Young kids who are striving to be goaltenders should turn their heads away and forget that this series ever happened. Don't take tips from Niemi and Leighton.

You should take tips however from these teams defence corps, 2 of the best in the league, and the only reason these games might go under the number. FIrst of all, we have the beast of the East Chris Pronger, who has now made 3 of the last 5 finals and has been in the playoffs 14 STRAIGHT SEASONS. Unreal. We know what this guy brings to the table. An agressive almost over-the edge style of play yet rarely finds himself out of position. The only thing I don't understand about his guy is why he wets his hair so freakin much before he comes on to the ice and slicks it back.

Pronger plays almost 30 minutes every game, and surprisingly his counterparts play almost as much. Kimmo Timonen, Matt Carle, Braydon Coburn all log 20-25 minutes a game, shut the opposition down and put up good offensive numbers as well. But the other 2 D are really important in this series as well. Ryan Parent and Lukas Krajicek, who saw a grand total of just under 5 minutes in Game 5 of the Montreal series. It's no secret, these guys are plugs. So when Peter Laviolette decides to put these guys on the ice, Chicago will have to respond with their big guns. And when they have last change at home, they will be able to do that with ease.

Chicago's D is a great mix of young (Keith, Seabrook) and veteran talent (Sopel, Campbell) and are a huge reason why Antii Niemi did what he did in the SJ series. They might not be as nasty and physical as the Philly D but their ability to jump in the rush is dangerous. Hopefully Mike Green of Washington is watching this series so he can learn how to jump in to the rush and then successfully come back on D without costing his team big time.

So let's move on to the guys who will be doing most of the scoring these series. A lot of talent from the front end in this series. Question.. which top 4 players on their respective teams are scarier?

Kane, Toews, Byfuglien, Hossa for Chicago

or

Richards, Carter, Gagne, Briere for Philly

That's extremely tough to decide and great arguments could be made for both top 4's. We do know this, though. With those names, there will be goals in this series. So to repeat myself, TAKE THE OVER.

it will be interesting to watch the 3rd and 4th lines do their jobs. Chicago has yet to play an agitator like Dan Carcillo or Scott Hartnell, and it should be interesting to see how they react to the presence of these players. Meanwhile, Big Buff is likely to provide some big problems for the Flyers D as he places himself in front of the net and lets Pronger slash and cross check him until a penalty is called. Discipline is huge in this series, because the powerplays for both teams are above average.

And how about the hair and beard styles from these forwards. We've seen the chops (Toews), the classic mullet (Kane), the grease special (Hartnell), and the 'stache (Carcillo).

Before we get to the final prediction, let's take a quick look at some other interesting things.

Here's a quality that most Stanley Cup winning teams have. They usually go through a moment in the playoffs when the chance that they may be eliminated is good. You could call it the "Holy Crap, we're in trouble" moment. But in whatever way, shape, or form, they avoid disaster and come together as a team, realizing that they never want to come that close to being eliminated again, eventually leading to good things. Don't believe me? Let's take a look at some recent Cup winning teams and the playoff tribulations that they have gone through.

2009: Pittsburgh- Go down 2-0 to Ovechkin and the Capitals in the 2nd round and appear to be toast. Game 3 goes to OT, but Kris Letang scores for the Pens and they end up winning in 7.

2008: Detroit- Couldn't really find one, although they were seeded #1 and the 8 seed Predators tied the series up at 2 and took them to overtime in Game 5 before the Wings won.

2007: Anaheim- Trailing the Wings by 1 in Game 5 of the West Final, and in danger of going down 3-2 in the series, the Ducks score with under a minute left in regulation and win in OT.

2006: Carolina- In the first round, they lose the first 2 games at home, and have to go back to Montreal trailing 0-2. But a young rookie named Cam Ward comes in and the Canes win the next 4 games en route to a title.

2004: Tampa Bay- The Calgary Flames go up 3-2 in the final and go back home trying to wrap up the series. A controversial disallowed goal allows the game to go into OT where the Lightning win and go on to win Game 7.

This year, the Blackhawks had a frightening moment against Nashville when, in Game 5 and the series tied at 2, they trailed 4-3 and Marian "I'll let the other guys win a Cup for me" Hossa takes a penalty with under 2 minutes left in regulation. Somehow, they score shorthanded and send the game to OT where Hossa comes out of the box and wins it. Wow, that was close.

The Flyers had the biggest "Holy Crap, we're in trouble moment" ever when they trailed the Boston Bruins 3-0 in their second round series. They battled back to win 3 straight and then in game 7, trailed 3-0 in the second period and miraculously came back to win 4-3.


So who will win this series? Despite what some are saying, this will not be over quickly. We've mentioned the home ice advantage which both teams are fortunate of having, Philly a bit better than Chicago ( Philly 7-1, Chicago 5-3). We've mentioned the depth at forward for these teams, the offensive and defensive gems on the back end. And of course, we mentioned the less than stellar goaltending.
But the fact is this. Most young teams need to make a pilot run in the playoffs just to see what it's all about. The Blackhawks took that run last year, losing to Detroit in the West Final. They've taken that next step and just need to finish it off. We constantly see lower seeded teams reach the final, especially in the last decade. But they never end up winning. Now the Flyers are better than a 7 seed there's no question about it. But the high seed always seems to come out on top in these David vs Goliath series'. So even though I think both teams deserve a Stanley Cup ring, I can only pick one.

Chicago in 7

Sunday, May 16, 2010

NHL Conference Finals Spoiler Alert

So my blog post from the second round actually lived up to the "spoiler alert" name as I went 3-1 and further added to my resume as the best 18-year old predictor in Winnipeg.

Just a few quick thoughts before we get to the picks.

-I'm pretty much in a haze as to what is going on in these playoffs. We've seen massive upsets, historic comebacks, crazy-ass mullets, ugly mustaches, 45 different analysts on TSN, announcers who need to hang up the headset (B. Cole), and so on. Just more reasons why the Stanley Cup Playoffs are so fun to follow.

-The most shocking stat: Road teams are 4-0 in Game 7. Home-ice advantage has slowly become a non-factor in the last decade, and now with this glaring statistic, it is obvious that home-ice is not what it used to be.


East Final

Philadelphia vs Montreal

This is the farthest the Habs have gone since 1993, the last time they won the Stanley Cup. Now I was 2 at the time, so I have no memory of this, although I've been told by my parents that I was sitting by the TV that year.

Here we are 17 years later. I know exactly what's going on, and to be honest, I am really scared for this upcoming series, more than I was for the Pittsburgh and Washington series'.

Here are 5 reasons why as a Habs fan, I am on the verge of vomiting everywhere:

1) The momentum that the Flyers have is off the charts right now. They pulled off a comeback that has happened only 4 times in the history of professional sports.

2) They get the bloody home ice advantage, with their crowd who is known to be pretty hasty towards the opposition. I just said that home ice is kind of overrated, but I think there are a couple of places where it matters, and Philadelphia is one of them.

3) That big sasquatch named Chris Pronger seems to win wherever he goes. Montreal has yet to face a good shut-down defenseman and Pronger has the potential to throw around Cammalleri and Gionta like rag dolls.

4) Back in 2008, when Montreal finished 1st in the Eastern Conference, they entered the second round against an up-and-coming team from Philly that wasn't expected to do much. Philly won in five games.

5) I picked the Flyers to win the East back in my September NHL preview. And we all know that my predictions pretty much always come true.

Well almost always...

I used to pick Montreal all the time for obvious reasons, and predicted they would win that 2008 Flyers series in 5. Nope. In fact, it seems that every time I pick my teams in the playoffs, they end up losing painfully (San Diego Chargers...last 5 years...). And look what happens when I choose Washington and Pittsburgh in the first and second round series. Habs Win. Even though I follow this team religiously, they seem to shit on me whenever I pick them. I finally realized something.

I can't pick my favourite team to win.

So it's time to introduce something called the reverse jinx theory. We all know what a jinx is. You rave about something so much and you eventually jinx it and it doesn't happen. But what happens when you reverse it? You basically go on and on saying that say that your team sucks and they're going to lose until you end up jinxing that and they end up winning.

No, I am not baked out of my mind right now. I actually kind of stole it from 2 sources: Habsinsideout.com, where their humor writer, Mike Boone, likes to pop out the jinx theory from time to time, and ESPN.com writer Bill Simmons, who does it for his favourite Boston teams. And the truth is... it works most of the time.

So here goes:

Montreal's going to get beat up.They're too small. Philly's too big. Halak is due for a shellacking.

Philadelphia in 6

(I hope I didn't just jinx the reverse jinx theory by revealing it to everybody.)



West Final

San Jose vs Chicago

Unlike the roller-coaster Eastern Conference, the West sees the top 2 teams battling for the conference championship.

My first problem with Chicago comes from between the pipes. Should we really trust Anti Niemi? His theme song is without question "Hot n' Cold" by Katy Perry because:

1) He gets a shutout and then he lets in 4 goals the next game.

2) Did I just use a Katy Perry reference in my blog? For shame....

In fact, Chicago has played 12 games these playoffs, Niemi has allowed 4 or more goals in 6 of them. That is not a good stat. Especially when all the other goalies in the playoffs are not even close to this number.

Halak= 3 4 or more goal games in 14 Montreal playoff games.

Nabokov= 2 4 or more goal games in 11 San Jose playoff games.

Yikes, my Auntie Monica might do better in net than Anti Niemi in this series.

I think this is a huge x-factor in this series, considering the defense corps are pretty much even and the forward lines are almost even, although I would give the Sharks an edge because we all know the unwritten rule in the NHL.....Marian Hossa is not allowed to win a Stanley Cup.

But I think the result of this series does not come directly from the X's and O's.

San Jose has been laughed at by the NHL for the last 5 years after their outstanding regular seasons and terrible playoff exits. And now they are pissed right off.

They sent the aging Wings team back to the senior home by stomping on them in 5.

They sent the baby Avs back to their cribs by beating them in 6.

And now you've got the skilled Hawks. Skilled or not, the Sharks have finally knocked the "choker" label off their jersey which now belongs to the Washington Capitals. And the sky is the limit for San Jose. This team has had sooooo much talent the last 5 years but has been faced with the playoff pressure and didn't respond. Now they have finally responded. They just beat the back-to-back defending conference champions. This playoff pressure is slowly fading away. The all-stars are confident. The young guns are firing away. Rob Blake' s pacemaker is still hanging in there.

And I'll say it one more time. Ever since the Dan Boyle own-goal in Game 3 of the Avs series, the Sharks are a different team. They hit the lowest of lows after that but now have bonded together and are 7-1 since that incident. They're pissed off and they're not going to take it anymore. Bring on the Finals.

San Jose in 6



Friday, May 7, 2010

Choking on Wings

Surprisingly, the following post will have no mention of the Montreal Canadiens who are now just 2 wins away from a trip to the Eastern Conference Final.... Holy Crap, I've dreamed my whole life for this, this is amazing, It's a dream come tr---

Sorry, I got a little excited there.

But I'm here today to talk about a series that I do not care about whatsoever. The Sharks vs the Wings. Currently, the Sharks lead 3-1 and are one win away from a spot in the West Final. Yesterday, the Sharks tried for the sweep and instead got destroyed 7-1 and have to wait another 2 days for a chance to wrap up the series.

Now you're probably saying that it was just a bad game and all they need to do is win one more game where as the Wings have to win three. And we all know the stats. Only 2 teams have ever come back to win a series after going down 3-0.

But one day, a third team will arise and come back from that deficit. How soon? Well all signs point to next week. Let me explain.

The San Jose Sharks are currently in one of the biggest playoff funks ever. For the last 5 years, they have had great regular seasons only to arrive in the playoffs and get booted out in the first or second round. Last year, they finished with the best record in the NHL and promptly got knocked out by the Ducks in the first round. This year, they again finished first in the West, and had their troubles against a garbage Colorado team, but survived.

Now they're up against the back-to-back Western Conference Champion, Detroit Red Wings. And through the first 3 games, it looked like a completely different Sharks team from years past. A new hero in Joe Pavelski. Joe Thornton actually hitting somebody in the playoffs. Dan Boyle actually putting the puck in the opposition's net. Just like that, it was 3-0 San Jose and the ghosts of playoffs past were slowly being exterminated.

But then yesterday came. Evgeni Nabokov showed signs of his Olympic brilliance this year as he let in 5 first period goals. Rob Blake showed us why he should retire VERY soon. It was not a good day for San Jose. Final score 7-1 Detroit. San Jose confidence level= 0%.

Whenever a series goes down 3-0, there's always some mention of "Could this be the series where the comeback happens?." And the Sharks have heard their fair share of it already. This is a San Jose team that has handled pressure EXTREMELY poorly in the last 5 years. So now they're faced with having to stop a comeback that has happened twice in 93 years. Pretty simple, right? Not for the Sharks.

Here's how Game 5 might look. The Sharks will be gripping their sticks tightly, the fans will be biting their fingernails nervously. The Wings will be playing loose hockey. They have nothing to lose, they've been to the Finals two years in a row. They will be having fun and the Sharks will be going through hell trying to wrap up the series. So who do you think has the advantage?

And the Sharks will have to spend today and tomorrow hearing about the possible comeback through the media. But who on this team can put a stop to that? Other than Dan Boyle and Rob Blake, two aging defenceman, nobody on this team has won anything. The San Jose Sharks do not know how to win high-pressured games.

And now they are faced with their biggest test yet. A chance to finally make it to the West final, but trying to prevent a collapse that happens once every 40 years. If anyone could come back from this, it would be the Wings. And if anyone could collapse like this, it would be the Sharks.

We might be in store for a little next history come next Wednesday. Because the Wings are 25% done the comeback. And the Sharks know it.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Golf is boring to watch? Give me a break...

When people come up to me and say that golf is boring to watch on TV, two things come to my mind:

1) I should kick this person right in the shin
2) I should tell them why their opinion is wrong

Fortunately, I've never had to incorporate #1 and I instead politely disagree with their opinion. I immediately say to them that golf is one of the most dramatic sports, therefore creating must-watch TV. Now usually they'll mutter something and walk away, but if they were to stay and continue to argue their point, here are 5 reasons that I would bring up which would change their boring perspective.


1) The Music

As an 18-year old, I should be enjoying the music of Kanye West or Jay-Z. Instead I find myself enjoying the CBS and NBC sports golf themes just a little more. But seriously, listen to these themes before you go out to play a round of golf and I guarantee you will be more than pumped to go to the first tee. Not that I've ever done that....





2) International Announcers

The CBS golf team has a few Englishmen, a Scot, an Aussie, and a guy from the southern United States. So many accents. It really is something to behold when all these guys are talking to each other. I`m basically travelling around the world while sitting on my couch just giving us another reason why being a couch potato can actually amount to something.

3) The Low talking Announcers

Staying with the announcers, I know they`re told to be quiet but it really is fun to listen to how deep they make their voice go to sound quiet and dramatic at the same time. It almost seems like they have a bet going on to see whose voice can get the deepest because they get lower and lower throughout the broadcast. In fact, my chest pounds as the waves from my television's bass amp hit it.

4) The Gallery

Sometimes they steal the show with their comments in between shots. Sometimes they wear goofy clothing that would have made Payne Stewart jealous. Sometimes they distract the golfers leading to an on-course freak-out. Whatever it is, they create a lot more fun when watching golf.



5) The crazy camera angles

It`s really hard to turn away from the Slo-Mo swing cam, especially the close-up when the driver makes contact with the ball and the tee goes flying. Breathtaking television.





So the next time someone tells you that golf is boring to watch on TV, bring up some of these reasons and get them excited to watch some golf in the future. And if that doesn't work, you can always kick them in the shin.